Wilmington leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Wilmington typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wilmington, ~45% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wilmington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wilmington leans more Democratic than 44 of 45 neighbors.
Wilmington runs about 12 points more Democratic than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wilmington. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+57) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 66 points.
Why Wilmington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wilmington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in Wilmington live in densely developed areas, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Wilmington sits in the top quarter (about 45%, above 91% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in Wilmington have never been married, above 91% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Wilmington, NC sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Wilmington looks the way it does
Turnout in Wilmington sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kings Grant, NC R+4
- Wrightsville Beach, NC R+12
- Murraysville, NC Even
- Myrtle Grove, NC R+16
- Belville, NC R+16
- Blue Clay Farms, NC R+13
- Castle Hayne, NC R+13
- Navassa, NC D+5
- Winnabow, NC R+25
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lancaster, PA D+14
- Corona, CA Even
- Van Nuys, CA D+32
- Garden Grove, CA Even
- Ann Arbor, MI D+61
- North Hollywood, CA D+32
- Erie, PA D+15
- Pembroke Pines, FL D+14
- Naperville, IL D+21
- Enterprise, NV D+6
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.