Central Islip leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Central Islip typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Central Islip, ~28% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Central Islip compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Central Islip leans more Democratic than 159 of 171 neighbors.
Central Islip runs about 14 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Central Islip. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+43) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+17), a spread of about 26 points.
Why Central Islip leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Central Islip, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in Central Islip live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 44% of adults in Central Islip have never been married, above 96% of cities.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Central Islip, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Central Islip looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Central Islip is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Central Islip report food insecurity, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Islandia, NY D+4
- North Great River, NY R+29
- Islip Terrace, NY R+26
- Hauppauge, NY R+20
- Islip, NY R+20
- North Bay Shore, NY D+25
- East Islip, NY R+30
- Ronkonkoma, NY R+26
- Village of the Branch, NY R+23
- Great River, NY R+17
Cities with Similar Populations
- Manhattan Beach, CA D+28
- Greenville, TX R+37
- Odenton, MD D+36
- Sanger, CA R+9
- Natick, MA D+41
- Port Angeles, WA D+9
- Arnold, MO R+31
- Oak Creek, WI R+3
- Hudsonville, MI R+32
- La Presa, CA D+18
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.