Centralia leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Centralia typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Centralia, ~22% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Centralia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Centralia leans more Republican than 1 of 62 neighbors.
Centralia runs about 42 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Centralia is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Centralia. The southeast side is the most split-leaning (R+43) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 43 points.
Why Centralia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Centralia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Centralia votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 64%, far above the Illinois average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Centralia runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Centralia, IL does.
Why turnout in Centralia looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 29% of households in Centralia rent, above 83% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in Centralia have completed high school, below 75% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Central City, IL R+48
- Wamac, IL R+47
- Junction City, IL R+59
- Walnut Hill, IL R+59
- Hubbard Woods, IL R+56
- Sandoval, IL R+53
- Irvington, IL R+56
- Hoffman, IL R+56
- Odin, IL R+61
- Ferrin, IL R+59
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ashwaubenon, WI Even
- Country Club Hills, IL D+79
- East Highland Park, VA D+69
- Coshocton, OH R+45
- Sunny Vista, CA D+15
- Parole, MD D+30
- Vinings, GA D+37
- Riverton, WY R+46
- Pickens, SC R+67
- Camano Island, WA D+6
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.