Clay County is a Republican stronghold. About 13% of voters here vote Democratic and 87% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Clay County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~10% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 4 of 6 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 61 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+83) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+68), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 74% of households in Clay County are family households, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Clay County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 84% of households in Clay County own their home, about 9 points above the Texas average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 94% of adults in Clay County have completed high school, above 85% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Wichita County, TX R+31
- Archer County, TX R+76
- Jefferson County, OK R+68
- Montague County, TX R+70
- Cotton County, OK R+66
- Jack County, TX R+74
- Young County, TX R+66
- Stephens County, OK R+58
- Tillman County, OK R+55
- Comanche County, OK R+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Chicot County, AR D+3
- Butte County, SD R+62
- Pike County, AR R+69
- Alcona County, MI R+36
- Johnston County, OK R+65
- Nemaha County, KS R+64
- Roberts County, SD R+19
- Noxubee County, MS D+49
- Howard County, MO R+48
- Metcalfe County, KY R+65
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.