Metcalfe County is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Metcalfe County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Metcalfe County, ~13% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Metcalfe County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Metcalfe County leans more Republican than 10 of 22 neighbors.
Metcalfe County runs about 34 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Why Metcalfe County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Metcalfe County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Metcalfe County, about 95% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 14% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 5 points below the Kentucky average of 19%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Metcalfe County, KY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Metcalfe County looks the way it does
Turnout in Metcalfe County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Barren County, KY R+50
- Green County, KY R+68
- Cumberland County, KY R+67
- Monroe County, KY R+69
- Adair County, KY R+62
- Hart County, KY R+61
- Taylor County, KY R+50
- Clay County, TN R+67
- Russell County, KY R+67
- Clinton County, KY R+72
Counties with Similar Populations
- Noxubee County, MS D+49
- Roberts County, SD R+19
- Nemaha County, KS R+64
- Johnston County, OK R+65
- Lowndes County, AL D+35
- Butte County, SD R+62
- Montgomery County, IA R+41
- Clay County, TX R+74
- Ralls County, MO R+62
- Camden County, NC R+48
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.