Clay is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Clay typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay, ~41% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Clay sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 27 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 96 leaning the other way.
Clay runs about 14 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Clay sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Clay. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Clay leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Clay votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Clay runs about 14 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Clay, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Clay looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Clay is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Syracuse, NY D+6
- Liverpool, NY D+13
- Brewerton, NY R+9
- Cicero, NY R+5
- Mattydale, NY D+5
- Lyncourt, NY D+8
- Pennellville, NY R+23
- Three Rivers, NY D+7
- Sand Ridge, NY R+20
- Baldwinsville, NY D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pikeville, NC R+39
- Ketchikan, AK Even
- Mattawan, MI R+15
- College, AK Even
- Clearfield, PA R+40
- Farmingdale, NY R+15
- Pearl River, LA R+52
- Chelsea, MI D+17
- Lanett, AL D+3
- Monticello, AR R+21
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.