Baldwinsville is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Baldwinsville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baldwinsville, ~44% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baldwinsville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Baldwinsville leans more Democratic than 98 of 119 neighbors.
Baldwinsville runs about 9 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Baldwinsville. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Baldwinsville leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Baldwinsville. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Baldwinsville, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Baldwinsville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Baldwinsville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Three Rivers, NY D+7
- Warners, NY R+17
- Phoenix, NY R+18
- Liverpool, NY D+13
- Little Utica, NY R+28
- Plainville, NY R+20
- Memphis, NY R+23
- Hinmansville, NY R+30
- Wrights Corners, NY R+32
- Sand Ridge, NY R+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Banning, CA R+4
- Garden City, KS R+18
- Ephrata, PA R+29
- Dakota Ridge, CO D+9
- Helena, MT D+17
- Southlake, TX R+29
- Shelbyville, TN R+43
- East Wenatchee, WA R+24
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Foothill Farms, CA D+2
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.