Dayton leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Dayton typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dayton, ~28% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dayton compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dayton leans more Republican than 54 of 84 neighbors.
Dayton runs about 39 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Dayton is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Dayton leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dayton, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dayton votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 23%, modestly below the Oregon average of 31%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Dayton are family households, above 85% of cities. Dayton runs against the grain of Oregon, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Dayton, OR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Dayton looks the way it does
Turnout in Dayton sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lafayette, OR R+10
- St. Joseph, OR R+14
- Eola Village, OR R+24
- Unionvale, OR R+33
- Dundee, OR R+12
- St. Paul, OR R+21
- Fairfield, OR R+28
- Mcminnville, OR Even
- Sunnycrest, OR R+17
- Carlton, OR R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Afton, OK R+60
- Gillespie, IL R+39
- Independence, MN R+14
- Spencer, WI R+41
- Hardinsburg, KY R+52
- Bicknell, IN R+53
- Elsberry, MO R+53
- Presidio, TX D+4
- Wilburton, OK R+61
- Hinckley, MN R+33
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.