Dover Afb leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 33% of adults in Dover Afb typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover Afb, ~15% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dover Afb compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dover Afb leans more Republican than 11 of 76 neighbors.
Dover Afb runs about 20 points more Republican than Delaware as a whole. Delaware leans Democratic overall, while Dover Afb is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Dover Afb leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover Afb, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dover Afb votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 77%, far above the Delaware average of 43%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 97% of households in Dover Afb are family households, in the top fraction of cities. Dover Afb runs against the grain of Delaware, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Dover Afb, DE sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Dover Afb looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Dover Afb is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and more than 99% of households in Dover Afb rent, compared to around 21% in nearby cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 99% of adults in Dover Afb have completed high school, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Little Creek, DE R+11
- Kitts Hummock, DE R+35
- Dover, DE D+25
- Wyoming, DE D+7
- Magnolia, DE D+2
- Camden, DE Even
- Woodside, DE R+17
- Bowers, DE R+36
- Frederica, DE R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Salem, PA R+53
- Holabird, SD R+63
- Owl City, TN R+73
- Kumler, IL R+47
- Tidal, PA R+67
- Goldsmith, IN R+59
- Monett, KS R+72
- Palmerville, NC R+51
- Heglar, ID R+76
- West Freedom, PA R+67
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Delaware Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.