Dover leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Dover typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover, ~17% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dover compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dover leans more Republican than 48 of 60 neighbors.
Dover runs about 44 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Dover is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Dover leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dover votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Dover runs about 44 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Dover are family households, above 84% of cities.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Dover, MN does.
Why turnout in Dover looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Dover is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- St. Charles, MN R+30
- Eyota, MN R+28
- Saratoga, MN R+38
- Cummingsville, MN R+33
- Elba, MN R+38
- Predmore, MN R+36
- Viola, MN R+33
- Utica, MN R+43
- Chatfield, MN R+30
- Marion, MN R+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Meadows Of Dan, VA R+59
- Brownsville, WI R+47
- Belfast, NY R+43
- Franklin, NY R+22
- Keota, OK R+72
- Snover, MI R+60
- Bogata, TX R+70
- Old Forge, NY R+3
- Laurel Springs, NC R+56
- Windham, NY R+6
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.