Durham leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Durham typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Durham, ~17% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Durham compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Durham leans more Republican than 8 of 31 neighbors.
Durham runs about 7 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Durham. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+70) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 62 points.
Why Durham leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Durham, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in Durham hold a bachelor's degree, about 25 points below the Florida average of 31%.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Durham, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Durham looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Durham is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 41%, about 15 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 48% of households in Durham rent, compared to around 19% in nearby cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in Durham have completed high school, below 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Blountstown, FL R+44
- Leonards, FL R+42
- Cox, FL R+55
- Woods, FL R+74
- Chipola, FL R+75
- Estiffanulga, FL R+73
- Clarksville, FL R+79
- Bristol, FL R+34
- Frink, FL R+81
- Scotts Ferry, FL R+74
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bullock, NC R+26
- Sumner, IL R+52
- Tioga, PA R+57
- Landen, OH R+8
- Marydel, DE R+51
- Laona, WI R+37
- Terrell, NC R+39
- Henry, VA R+57
- Sidney, MI R+45
- Galeton, PA R+50
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.