El Cerro leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 65% of adults in El Cerro typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Cerro, ~26% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Cerro compares
Among cities within 25 miles, El Cerro leans more Republican than 19 of 25 neighbors.
El Cerro runs about 26 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while El Cerro is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why El Cerro leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for El Cerro, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in El Cerro are family households, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 67%. El Cerro runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; El Cerro, NM sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in El Cerro looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. El Cerro is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Los Lunas, NM R+11
- Los Chaves, NM R+22
- La Constancia, NM R+19
- Valencia, NM R+17
- Peralta, NM R+17
- Los Lentes, NM R+10
- Belen, NM R+14
- Bosque Farms, NM R+12
- Meadow Lake, NM R+6
Cities with Similar Populations
- Youngstown, IL R+48
- Sealy Springs, AL R+69
- Hardin Heights, FL D+49
- Saco, AL R+32
- Long Valley Junction, UT R+52
- Mount Jefferson, AL R+24
- Los Hueros, NM D+10
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.