El Paso County leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 46% of adults in El Paso County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Paso County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Paso County compares
El Paso County runs about 28 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while El Paso County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within El Paso County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+31) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+4), a spread of about 35 points.
Why El Paso County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for El Paso County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 84% of residents in El Paso County live in densely developed areas, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in El Paso County have never been married, above 85% of counties. El Paso County runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; El Paso County, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in El Paso County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. El Paso County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 29%, about 11 points above the Texas average of 19%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 34% of households in El Paso County rent, above 84% of counties. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in El Paso County have completed high school, below 92% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dona Ana County, NM D+4
- Hudspeth County, TX R+45
- Otero County, NM R+19
- Luna County, NM R+19
- Culberson County, TX R+18
- Sierra County, NM R+17
- Lincoln County, NM R+28
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Eddy County, NM R+49
- Hidalgo County, NM R+22
Counties with Similar Populations
- Essex County, NJ D+48
- Middlesex County, NJ D+11
- Worcester County, MA D+12
- Hidalgo County, TX R+2
- San Francisco County, CA D+61
- Montgomery County, PA D+21
- Baltimore County, MD D+28
- Macomb County, MI R+10
- Ventura County, CA D+16
- Hamilton County, OH D+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.