Dona Ana County is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Dona Ana County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dona Ana County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dona Ana County compares
Politically, Dona Ana County sits close to the rest of New Mexico.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Dona Ana County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Dona Ana County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Dona Ana County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Dona Ana County, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Dona Ana County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Dona Ana County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 20%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 10%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Dona Ana County report food insecurity, above 92% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- El Paso County, TX D+15
- Otero County, NM R+19
- Luna County, NM R+19
- Sierra County, NM R+17
- Hudspeth County, TX R+45
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Lincoln County, NM R+28
- Hidalgo County, NM R+22
- Socorro County, NM Even
- Culberson County, TX R+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Montgomery County, TN R+16
- Clay County, FL R+31
- Calcasieu Parish, LA R+29
- Yolo County, CA D+35
- Shelby County, AL R+36
- Johnston County, NC R+21
- Lackawanna County, PA Even
- Jackson County, OR R+3
- Delaware County, OH R+5
- New Hanover County, NC D+5
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.