Lake Arrowhead leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Lake Arrowhead typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Arrowhead, ~27% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Arrowhead compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Arrowhead leans more Republican than 39 of 54 neighbors.
Lake Arrowhead runs about 44 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lake Arrowhead is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Arrowhead. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Lake Arrowhead leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Arrowhead, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Arrowhead votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 46%, modestly below the California average of 58%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. Lake Arrowhead runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Lake Arrowhead, CA does.
Why turnout in Lake Arrowhead looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake Arrowhead is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Blue Jay, CA R+16
- Cedar Glen, CA R+32
- Crest Park, CA R+19
- Skyforest, CA R+18
- Twin Peaks, CA R+23
- Rimforest, CA R+18
- Crestline, CA R+10
- Running Springs, CA R+27
- Cedarpines Park, CA R+20
- Green Valley Lake, CA R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Massey Lake, TX R+13
- Lakeview, NY R+15
- Trion, GA R+59
- Ladera Heights, CA D+78
- Vandenberg Village, CA R+4
- Wartburg, TN R+66
- Sound Beach, NY R+15
- Marstons Mills, MA D+9
- Christiana, TN R+53
- Claxton, GA R+27
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.