Guatay leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Guatay typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guatay, ~17% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Guatay compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Guatay leans more Republican than 25 of 32 neighbors.
Guatay runs about 53 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Guatay is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Guatay leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guatay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Guatay live in densely developed areas, about 55 points below the California average of 58%. Guatay runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Guatay, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Guatay looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in Guatay have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Descanso, CA R+34
- Pine Valley, CA R+35
- Boulder Oaks, CA R+29
- Mount Laguna, CA R+33
- Pine Hills, CA R+13
- Alpine, CA R+30
- Alpine Heights, CA R+44
- Cameron Corners, CA R+31
- Campo, CA R+31
- Julian, CA R+7
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adamson, OK R+67
- Clarence, LA R+45
- Fruitdale, AL R+77
- Wilkinson, TX R+73
- Cameron, IL R+44
- Centralhatchee, GA R+73
- Clarksburg, TN R+68
- Lake City, CO R+6
- Ivydale, WV R+57
- Kossuthville, FL R+59
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.