Hardaway leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Hardaway typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hardaway, ~40% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hardaway compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hardaway leans more Democratic than 30 of 39 neighbors.
Hardaway runs about 33 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Hardaway is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hardaway. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+53) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+3), a spread of about 50 points.
Why Hardaway leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hardaway, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hardaway votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Hardaway runs about 33 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Hardaway, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hardaway looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hardaway is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 41%, about 16 points below the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Gretna, FL D+61
- Sawdust, FL D+34
- Greensboro, FL R+20
- Mount Pleasant, FL D+57
- Sycamore, FL R+42
- Chattahoochee, FL D+9
- Hannatown, GA R+58
- Hardin Heights, FL D+49
- Douglas City, FL D+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Glendevey, CO R+49
- Four Point, TN R+70
- Woods, ND R+46
- Massies Mill, VA R+28
- Plant, TN R+66
- North Prairie, TX R+68
- Lunds Valley, ND R+78
- Bloomington, NE R+66
- Warrens Bluff, TN R+67
- Canton, KY R+62
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.