Hardin County is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Hardin County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hardin County, ~17% vote Democratic, ~63% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hardin County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Hardin County leans more Republican than 14 of 22 neighbors.
Hardin County runs about 68 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Hardin County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Hardin County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+51), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Hardin County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hardin County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 10% of residents in Hardin County live in densely developed areas, about 23 points below the Illinois average of 33%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Hardin County fits that profile on both counts. Hardin County runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Hardin County, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Hardin County looks the way it does
Turnout in Hardin County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Crittenden County, KY R+68
- Pope County, IL R+60
- Gallatin County, IL R+60
- Saline County, IL R+50
- Union County, KY R+56
- Livingston County, KY R+64
- Lyon County, KY R+56
- Massac County, IL R+46
- Johnson County, IL R+41
- Caldwell County, KY R+56
Counties with Similar Populations
- Fisher County, TX R+67
- Sweet Grass County, MT R+54
- Norton City, VA R+39
- Echols County, GA R+66
- Adams County, IA R+46
- Cavalier County, ND R+48
- Lyman County, SD R+5
- Catron County, NM R+36
- Smith County, KS R+72
- Knox County, MO R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.