Catron County leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Catron County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Catron County, ~23% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Catron County compares
Catron County runs about 42 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Catron County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Catron County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+25), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Catron County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Catron County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Catron County live in densely developed areas, about 17 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. Catron County runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Catron County, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Catron County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in Catron County own their home, about 13 points above the New Mexico average of 80%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Catron County have completed high school, in the top fraction of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Greenlee County, AZ R+45
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Cibola County, NM D+10
- Socorro County, NM Even
- Sierra County, NM R+17
- Graham County, AZ R+39
- McKinley County, NM D+27
- Navajo County, AZ R+3
- Hidalgo County, NM R+22
- Valencia County, NM R+13
Counties with Similar Populations
- Smith County, KS R+72
- Hardeman County, TX R+60
- Sheridan County, MT R+58
- Mercer County, MO R+70
- Lewis County, ID R+60
- Hardin County, IL R+57
- Baca County, CO R+69
- Osborne County, KS R+74
- Costilla County, CO D+19
- Fisher County, TX R+67
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.