Union County is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Union County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Union County, ~14% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Union County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Union County leans more Republican than 8 of 19 neighbors.
Union County runs about 25 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Union County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+65) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+43), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Union County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Union County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 12% of adults in Union County hold a bachelor's degree, about 6 points below the Kentucky average of 19%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Union County, KY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Union County looks the way it does
Turnout in Union County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Webster County, KY R+58
- Gallatin County, IL R+60
- Henderson County, KY R+33
- Hardin County, IL R+57
- Crittenden County, KY R+68
- Posey County, IN R+45
- Vanderburgh County, IN R+9
- Hopkins County, KY R+48
- White County, IL R+59
- Saline County, IL R+50
Counties with Similar Populations
- Stewart County, TN R+67
- Calhoun County, FL R+59
- Callahan County, TX R+69
- Chowan County, NC R+12
- Breathitt County, KY R+62
- Morgan County, KY R+64
- Trinity County, TX R+58
- Comanche County, TX R+65
- Converse County, WY R+66
- Winn Parish, LA R+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.