Harrisburg leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Harrisburg typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Harrisburg, ~23% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Harrisburg compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Harrisburg leans more Republican than 12 of 40 neighbors.
Harrisburg runs about 27 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Harrisburg. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+40), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Harrisburg leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Harrisburg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 77% of households in Harrisburg are family households, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Harrisburg, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Harrisburg looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Harrisburg own their home, about 13 points above the Missouri average of 78%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Harrisburg have completed high school, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Woodlandville, MO R+35
- Rucker, MO R+51
- Sturgeon, MO R+49
- Higbee, MO R+63
- Rocheport, MO R+15
- Hallsville, MO R+38
- Clark, MO R+65
- Fayette, MO R+37
- Overton, MO R+49
- Columbia, MO D+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Nazareth, KY R+51
- Dyke, VA R+21
- Foxfire, NC R+46
- Arcadia, OH R+47
- North Redington Beach, FL R+24
- Snowmass, CO D+26
- Truman, MN R+44
- Millport, NY R+34
- Honeyville, UT R+70
- Sturgis, MS R+49
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.