Hayden leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Hayden typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hayden, ~35% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hayden compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hayden is the most Democratic-leaning.
Hayden runs about 17 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Hayden is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hayden. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+19) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Hayden leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hayden, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in Hayden is about 39%, about 34 points below the U.S. average of 72%. Hayden runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Hayden, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hayden looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hayden is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 11 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Winkelman, AZ D+3
- Dudleyville, AZ R+6
- Kearny, AZ R+35
- Kelvin, AZ R+38
- Mammoth, AZ Even
- Midland City, AZ R+6
- Little Acres, AZ R+10
- Top-of-the-World, AZ R+52
- Superior, AZ D+8
- Miami, AZ R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Edwardsville, AL R+77
- Islesboro, ME D+28
- Kinderhook, MI R+45
- Pinsonfork, KY R+70
- Marysville, ID R+65
- Romeo, CO R+29
- Brisbin, PA R+61
- Holland, MN R+63
- Wall, PA R+3
- Red Oak, MI R+45
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.