Kearny leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Kearny typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kearny, ~26% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Kearny compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Kearny leans more Republican than 9 of 12 neighbors.
Kearny runs about 29 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Kearny. The southeast side is the most split-leaning (R+54) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 53 points.
Why Kearny leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Kearny, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Kearny votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 43%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Kearny, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Kearny looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Kearny is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kelvin, AZ R+38
- Hayden, AZ D+11
- Winkelman, AZ D+3
- Dudleyville, AZ R+6
- Midland City, AZ R+6
- Superior, AZ D+8
- Top-of-the-World, AZ R+52
- Miami, AZ R+14
- Little Acres, AZ R+10
- Cactus Forest, AZ R+44
Cities with Similar Populations
- Worton, MD R+15
- Constable, NY R+38
- Cope, SC R+47
- Nora Springs, IA R+37
- Morven, NC D+30
- Pennsboro, WV R+69
- Gibraltar, MI R+20
- Lynnville, TN R+69
- Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ R+12
- Rosenhayn, NJ R+29
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.