Hot Springs Village leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Hot Springs Village typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hot Springs Village, ~22% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hot Springs Village compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hot Springs Village leans more Republican than 7 of 44 neighbors.
Hot Springs Village runs about 14 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hot Springs Village. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+55) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+37), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Hot Springs Village leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hot Springs Village, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hot Springs Village votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 35%, well above the Arkansas average of 13%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Hot Springs Village, AR sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Hot Springs Village looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Hot Springs Village is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%, about 10 points above the Arkansas average of 51%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Hot Springs Village have completed high school, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fountain Lake, AR R+50
- Euclid Heights, AR R+35
- Blakely, AR R+52
- Lonsdale, AR R+56
- Jessieville, AR R+47
- Owensville, AR R+64
- Price, AR R+64
- Mountain Pine, AR R+51
- Hot Springs, AR R+24
- Lake Catherine, AR R+49
Cities with Similar Populations
- Warwick, NY R+10
- Marshfield, MA D+8
- Walnut Grove, WA D+11
- White Settlement, TX R+20
- Madisonville, LA R+49
- Bellaire, TX D+9
- Cadillac, MI R+24
- Mount Morris, MI D+12
- Indianola, IA R+17
- Cedar Mill, OR D+48
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.