Houston is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 55% of adults in the Houston area typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Houston area, ~28% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Houston compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Houston leans more Democratic than 34 of 55 neighbors.
Houston runs about 17 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Houston is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Houston. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+21), a spread of about 43 points.
Why Houston leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Houston, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Houston votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Houston runs about 17 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Houston, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Houston looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Houston is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in the Houston area rent, compared to around 17% in nearby cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hilshire Village, TX R+16
- Hunters Creek Village, TX R+41
- Spring Valley, TX R+19
- Spring Valley Village, TX Even
- Hedwig Village, TX R+29
- West University Place, TX D+7
- Piney Point Village, TX R+13
- Southside Place, TX D+6
- Bellaire, TX D+9
- Bunker Hill Village, TX R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dallas, TX D+3
- Washington, DC D+43
- Philadelphia, PA D+27
- Miami, FL D+4
- Atlanta, GA D+19
- Boston, MA D+30
- Chicago, IL D+27
- Phoenix, AZ Even
- San Francisco, CA D+48
- Riverside, CA Even
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.