Jacksonville leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Jacksonville typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jacksonville, ~30% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jacksonville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Jacksonville leans more Democratic than 41 of 47 neighbors.
Jacksonville runs about 44 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Jacksonville is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Jacksonville. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+39) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+29), a spread of about 67 points.
Why Jacksonville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jacksonville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 65% of residents in Jacksonville live in densely developed areas, about 29 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in Jacksonville have never been married, above 86% of cities. Jacksonville runs against the grain of Arkansas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Jacksonville, AR sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Jacksonville looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 48% of households in Jacksonville rent, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Jacksonville sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Jacksonville report food insecurity, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Little Rock Air Force Base, AR R+4
- Toneyville, AR R+44
- Sherwood, AR Even
- Parnell, AR R+67
- Kerr, AR R+17
- Cabot, AR R+51
- Rose City, AR D+54
- North Little Rock, AR D+31
- Austin, AR R+57
- Lonoke, AR R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Texarkana, AR R+13
- La Verne, CA D+3
- Waycross, GA R+27
- Montrose, CO R+24
- Sapulpa, OK R+47
- Collegeville, PA D+9
- Nixa, MO R+44
- Derry, NH D+4
- Ken Caryl, CO D+7
- Ramona, CA R+26
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.