Toneyville leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Toneyville typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toneyville, ~15% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toneyville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toneyville leans more Republican than 17 of 47 neighbors.
Toneyville runs about 13 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toneyville. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 33 points.
Why Toneyville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Toneyville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 87% of residents in Toneyville drive to work alone, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Toneyville sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 84% of cities).
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Toneyville, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Toneyville looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 57% of households in Toneyville rent, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cabot, AR R+51
- Jacksonville, AR D+14
- Parnell, AR R+67
- Little Rock Air Force Base, AR R+4
- Austin, AR R+57
- Kerr, AR R+17
- Sherwood, AR Even
- Otto, AR R+67
- Ward, AR R+63
- Lonoke, AR R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bowmore, NC D+24
- Cory, IN R+63
- Quiet Dell, WV R+58
- Waco, NC R+46
- Timberlake, OH R+11
- Olmstedville, NY R+15
- Singleton, SC D+3
- Currie, MN R+46
- White Lake, SD R+59
- Vallecito, CA R+15
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.