Jefferson City leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Jefferson City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jefferson City, ~29% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jefferson City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Jefferson City leans more Republican than 2 of 60 neighbors.
Jefferson City runs about 4 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Jefferson City. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+51), a spread of about 64 points.
Why Jefferson City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jefferson City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Jefferson City votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 54%, far above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Jefferson City, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Jefferson City looks the way it does
Turnout in Jefferson City sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cedar City, MO R+43
- Wardsville, MO R+65
- Holts Summit, MO R+46
- St. Martins, MO R+48
- Taos, MO R+61
- Lohman, MO R+47
- Wainwright, MO R+52
- Osage Bluff, MO R+68
- Lake Mykee Town, MO R+57
- Folk, MO R+75
Cities with Similar Populations
- La Habra, CA D+5
- State College, PA D+35
- West Bloomfield, MI D+14
- Burnsville, MN D+23
- Wylie, TX R+12
- Hickory, NC R+22
- Martinsburg, WV R+24
- Blaine, MN D+6
- Niagara Falls, NY D+10
- Laguna Niguel, CA Even
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.