Laguna Niguel is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Laguna Niguel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Laguna Niguel, ~36% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Laguna Niguel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Laguna Niguel sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 14 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 28 leaning the other way.
Laguna Niguel runs about 21 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Laguna Niguel sits closer to the political middle.
Why Laguna Niguel leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Laguna Niguel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Laguna Niguel votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Laguna Niguel runs about 21 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Laguna Niguel, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Laguna Niguel looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Laguna Niguel is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Laguna Niguel have completed high school, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- San Juan Capistrano, CA R+4
- Aliso Viejo, CA D+11
- Dana Point, CA R+3
- Ladera Ranch, CA Even
- Laguna Beach, CA D+14
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Top-of-the-World, CA D+5
- Capistrano Beach, CA R+9
- Laguna Woods, CA D+12
- Mission Viejo, CA R+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Niagara Falls, NY D+10
- Mechanicsville, VA R+22
- Martinsburg, WV R+24
- Belleville, IL D+19
- Woodland, CA D+22
- Hot Springs, AR R+24
- Wylie, TX R+12
- Burnsville, MN D+23
- West Bloomfield, MI D+14
- Lebanon, PA R+22
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.