Jefferson County leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Jefferson County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jefferson County, ~25% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jefferson County compares
Jefferson County sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable counties nearby.
Jefferson County runs about 32 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Jefferson County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Jefferson County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+40) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Jefferson County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jefferson County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Jefferson County votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Jefferson County runs about 32 points more Republican.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Jefferson County, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Jefferson County looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 45% of households in Jefferson County rent, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lewis County, NY R+48
- Oswego County, NY R+23
- St. Lawrence County, NY R+18
- Oneida County, NY R+13
- Onondaga County, NY D+21
- Madison County, NY R+13
- Herkimer County, NY R+29
- Hamilton County, NY R+26
- Cayuga County, NY R+17
- Wayne County, NY R+23
Counties with Similar Populations
- Wayne County, OH R+42
- Robeson County, NC R+13
- Calhoun County, AL R+35
- Henderson County, NC R+16
- Wayne County, NC R+7
- Oswego County, NY R+23
- Missoula County, MT D+16
- Sheboygan County, WI R+15
- Flagler County, FL R+29
- Lowndes County, GA Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.