Missoula County leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Missoula County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Missoula County, ~46% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Missoula County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Missoula County is the most Democratic-leaning.
Missoula County runs about 36 points more Democratic than Montana as a whole. Montana leans Republican overall, while Missoula County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Missoula County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+34) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+25), a spread of about 59 points.
Why Missoula County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Missoula County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 63% of residents in Missoula County live in densely developed areas, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Missoula County sits in the top quarter (about 47%, above 96% of counties). Missoula County runs against the grain of Montana, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Missoula County, MT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Missoula County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Missoula County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Missoula County have completed high school, above 98% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Ravalli County, MT R+43
- Granite County, MT R+38
- Mineral County, MT R+53
- Lake County, MT R+21
- Powell County, MT R+48
- Deer Lodge County, MT R+18
- Sanders County, MT R+54
- Silver Bow County, MT Even
- Flathead County, MT R+32
- Lewis and Clark County, MT R+7
Counties with Similar Populations
- Sheboygan County, WI R+15
- Lowndes County, GA Even
- Oswego County, NY R+23
- Wayne County, NC R+7
- Potter County, TX R+19
- Douglas County, KS D+35
- Wayne County, OH R+42
- Gallatin County, MT D+6
- Jefferson County, NY R+19
- Carroll County, GA R+35
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.