Jefferson Valley leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Jefferson Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jefferson Valley, ~43% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jefferson Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Jefferson Valley leans more Democratic than 104 of 161 neighbors.
Jefferson Valley runs about 6 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Why Jefferson Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jefferson Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 46% of residents in Jefferson Valley live in densely developed areas, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Jefferson Valley sits in the top quarter (about 52%, above 94% of cities).
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Jefferson Valley, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Jefferson Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Jefferson Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY R+8
- Shrub Oak, NY R+5
- Baldwin Place, NY R+6
- Lake Mohegan, NY D+3
- Granite Springs, NY R+6
- Amawalk, NY R+7
- Putnam Valley, NY R+15
- Mahopac, NY R+28
- Mohegan Lake, NY Even
- Yorktown Heights, NY R+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- Eglon, KY R+71
- Spurgeon, IN R+53
- MacDougall, NY R+26
- Gainsboro, AR R+65
- St. Johns, NC R+4
- Mystic, IA R+51
- Hayneville, GA R+61
- Palmdale, FL R+65
- Igo, CA R+35
- Cummings, CA D+35
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.