Key Largo leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Key Largo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Key Largo, ~29% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Key Largo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Key Largo leans more Republican than 2 of 5 neighbors.
Key Largo runs about 12 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Key Largo. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Key Largo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Key Largo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Key Largo votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 26%, far below the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Key Largo, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Key Largo looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Key Largo is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tavernier, FL R+32
- Islamorada, FL R+39
- Florida City, FL D+17
- Homestead, FL R+5
- Leisure City, FL R+5
- Naranja, FL D+12
- Princeton, FL R+10
- Goulds, FL D+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Winchester, TN R+55
- Murrysville, PA R+15
- Shorewood, WI D+63
- Lantana, FL D+5
- Lake Tapps, WA R+9
- Bloomfield, NM R+45
- Speedway, IN D+24
- Monroe, WI R+8
- Durham, NH D+47
- Columbia, KY R+59
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.