Tavernier leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Tavernier typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tavernier, ~26% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tavernier compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tavernier leans more Republican than 1 of 5 neighbors.
Tavernier runs about 18 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Tavernier leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Tavernier. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tavernier, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tavernier looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tavernier is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Islamorada, FL R+39
- Key Largo, FL R+25
- Layton, FL R+32
- Long Key, FL R+32
- Florida City, FL D+17
- Homestead, FL R+5
- Leisure City, FL R+5
- Naranja, FL D+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Caruthersville, MO R+21
- Big Park, AZ D+17
- Buellton, CA Even
- Union City, PA R+38
- Grant, AL R+75
- Leslie, MI R+33
- Pipe Creek, TX R+61
- Freeland, PA R+30
- Jackson, LA R+34
- Paradise, TX R+77
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.