Lake Buena Vista is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Lake Buena Vista typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Buena Vista, ~25% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Buena Vista compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Buena Vista sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 34 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 26 leaning the other way.
Lake Buena Vista runs about 15 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Lake Buena Vista sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Buena Vista. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Lake Buena Vista leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Buena Vista, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Buena Vista votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Lake Buena Vista runs about 15 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Lake Buena Vista, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Lake Buena Vista looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lake Buena Vista is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 91% of households in Lake Buena Vista rent, compared to around 41% in nearby cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bay Lake, FL R+13
- Vineland, FL D+6
- Doctor Phillips, FL R+5
- Horizon West, FL R+7
- Celebration, FL R+16
- Windermere, FL R+13
- Hunters Creek, FL D+6
- Southchase, FL D+9
- Four Corners, FL R+6
- Oak Ridge, FL D+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- New Hope, NC R+30
- Upper Wheatfields, AZ D+58
- Geneva, TX R+67
- St. Elizabeth, MO R+77
- Mount Vernon, TN R+74
- Ladysmith, VA R+10
- McKeefrey, WV R+61
- Eau Galle, WI R+34
- Alba, MI R+41
- Creston, IL R+29
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.