Lakeland leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 66% of adults in the Lakeland area typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Lakeland area, ~27% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lakeland compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lakeland leans more Republican than 15 of 51 neighbors.
Lakeland runs about 5 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lakeland. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+31), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Lakeland leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lakeland, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lakeland votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 63%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Lakeland, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Lakeland looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lakeland is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Crystal Lake, FL R+11
- Youmans, FL R+58
- Fussels Corner, FL R+37
- Lakeland Highlands, FL R+36
- Coronet, FL R+45
- Kossuthville, FL R+59
- Highland City, FL R+29
- Fuller Heights, FL R+30
- Auburndale, FL R+36
- Mulberry, FL R+33
Cities with Similar Populations
- Des Moines, IA D+2
- Akron, OH D+5
- Little Rock, AR R+4
- Poughkeepsie, NY Even
- Colorado Springs, CO R+8
- Fort Myers, FL R+19
- Boise, ID R+20
- Madison, WI D+37
- Winston-Salem, NC R+9
- Greensboro, NC D+9
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.