Little Rock is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 62% of adults in the Little Rock area typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Little Rock area, ~30% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Little Rock compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Little Rock leans more Republican than 10 of 47 neighbors.
Little Rock runs about 26 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Little Rock. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 55 points.
Why Little Rock leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in the Little Rock area. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Little Rock, AR sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Little Rock looks the way it does
Turnout in the Little Rock area sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cammack Village, AR D+19
- Sweet Home, AR D+60
- North Little Rock, AR D+31
- Shannon Hills, AR R+15
- College Station, AR D+84
- Maumelle, AR D+11
- Mabelvale, AR R+13
- Alexander, AR R+32
- Rose City, AR D+54
- Pinnacle, AR R+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- Colorado Springs, CO R+8
- Fort Myers, FL R+19
- Boise, ID R+20
- Lakeland, FL R+18
- Greensboro, NC D+9
- Stockton, CA D+4
- Des Moines, IA D+2
- Fort Worth, TX D+15
- Akron, OH D+5
- Poughkeepsie, NY Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.