Las Cruces leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 33% of adults in Las Cruces typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Las Cruces, ~18% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~67% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Las Cruces compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Las Cruces leans more Democratic than 4 of 6 neighbors.
Las Cruces runs about 26 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Las Cruces is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Las Cruces. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+15) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+5), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Las Cruces leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Las Cruces, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Las Cruces live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. Las Cruces runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Las Cruces, Laredo, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Las Cruces looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Las Cruces is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 34%, about 19 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 63% of adults in Las Cruces have completed high school, below 98% of neighborhoods. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Las Cruces sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Calton Gardens, Laredo, TX D+9
- Las Lomas, Laredo, TX D+12
- Ghost Town, Laredo, TX D+8
- El Trece, Laredo, TX D+13
- Heights, Laredo, TX D+11
- Santo Nino, Laredo, TX D+7
- San Isidro, Laredo, TX R+9
- Santa Fe, Laredo, TX R+8
- Medina, Zapata, TX Even
- Doffing, Mission, TX R+5
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Winstead Park, Boise, ID D+20
- Fort Sanders, Knoxville, TN D+36
- Saint Roch, New Orleans, LA D+79
- Saint Claude, New Orleans, LA D+71
- Montrose, Chicago, IL D+39
- Tallyn's Reach, Aurora, CO D+5
- Harbor House, Charlotte, NC D+36
- Elliot Park, Minneapolis, MN D+63
- Nonantum, Newton, MA D+49
- Hillyard, Spokane, WA R+4
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.