Lava leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Lava typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lava, ~39% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lava compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lava leans more Democratic than 115 of 117 neighbors.
Lava runs about 5 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lava. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Lava leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lava, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 42% of adults in Lava hold a bachelor's degree, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Lava, NY sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lava looks the way it does
Turnout in Lava sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Narrowsburg, NY D+9
- Lake Huntington, NY R+7
- Milanville, PA R+38
- Beach Lake, PA R+41
- Cochecton, NY R+7
- Tyler Hill, PA R+36
- Bethel, NY R+9
- Lackawaxen, PA R+27
- Yulan, NY Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Edinburg, ND R+46
- Lodi, VA R+67
- Belleville, NY R+39
- Mill Grove, MO R+69
- Everett, MO R+62
- Wilder, MN R+52
- Litchfield, CA R+77
- Bowman, CA D+19
- Lamoille, NV R+64
- Lancaster Crossroads, NC R+25
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.