Lenoir leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Lenoir typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lenoir, ~23% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lenoir compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lenoir leans more Republican than 23 of 60 neighbors.
Lenoir runs about 37 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lenoir. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+40), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Lenoir leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lenoir, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lenoir votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 45%, well above the North Carolina average of 27%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Lenoir, NC sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lenoir looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lenoir is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cajahs Mountain, NC R+53
- Cedar Rock, NC R+58
- Gamewell, NC R+48
- Hudson, NC R+52
- Sawmills, NC R+51
- Yadkin Valley, NC R+58
- Rutherford College, NC R+49
- Granite Falls, NC R+53
- Collettsville, NC R+63
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pace, FL R+52
- Media, PA D+21
- Shelton, WA R+3
- American Fork, UT R+36
- Bowling Green, OH D+16
- Durango, CO D+28
- Cooper City, FL R+3
- University City, MO D+69
- Albertville, AL R+54
- Greeneville, TN R+57
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.