Lucas County leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Lucas County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lucas County, ~23% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lucas County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lucas County leans more Republican than 10 of 14 neighbors.
Lucas County runs about 31 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Why Lucas County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lucas County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Lucas County, about 94% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 16% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 8 points below the Iowa average of 24%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 82% of residents in Lucas County drive to work alone, above 81% of counties.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lucas County, IA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Lucas County looks the way it does
Turnout in Lucas County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Wayne County, IA R+56
- Clarke County, IA R+41
- Monroe County, IA R+43
- Marion County, IA R+34
- Warren County, IA R+24
- Appanoose County, IA R+43
- Decatur County, IA R+44
- Mahaska County, IA R+38
- Putnam County, MO R+68
- Madison County, IA R+41
Counties with Similar Populations
- Oregon County, MO R+69
- Wilson County, KS R+59
- Woods County, OK R+57
- Madison County, MT R+46
- Dimmit County, TX R+4
- Montgomery County, GA R+47
- Platte County, WY R+65
- Monroe County, MO R+57
- Lee County, AR D+10
- Turner County, SD R+53
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.