Lucas leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Lucas typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lucas, ~27% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lucas compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lucas leans more Republican than 41 of 71 neighbors.
Lucas runs about 20 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lucas. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+40) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Lucas leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lucas, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lucas votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 54%, well above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 85% of households in Lucas are family households, above 97% of cities.
Adult tooth loss and voter turnout
Places with a low adult tooth-loss rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lucas, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Tooth loss does not drive turnout; it reflects age, income, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Lucas looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lucas is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Lucas own their home, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Parker, TX R+17
- St. Paul, TX R+23
- Fairview, TX R+21
- Allen, TX R+5
- Murphy, TX R+8
- Lowry Crossing, TX R+21
- Wylie, TX R+12
- Princeton, TX R+20
- Sachse, TX R+11
- New Hope, TX R+48
Cities with Similar Populations
- South Hamilton, MA D+26
- Ocklawaha, FL R+54
- Parkville, MO R+5
- Mannford, OK R+64
- Mattawa, WA R+6
- Longboat Key, FL R+7
- Willow Park, TX R+53
- St. Rose, LA D+21
- Indian Head, MD D+26
- Bellaire, OH R+39
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.