Miami leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Miami typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Miami, ~21% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Miami compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Miami leans more Republican than 8 of 9 neighbors.
Miami runs about 24 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Miami is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Miami. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+23) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Miami leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Miami, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in Miami live in densely developed areas, about 16 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. Miami runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Miami, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Miami looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Miami is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Miami rent, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cimarron, NM R+5
- Springer, NM R+5
- Taylor Springs, NM R+15
- Maxwell, NM R+23
- Ocate, NM D+6
- Los Hueros, NM D+10
- Wagon Mound, NM D+13
- Lake View Pines, NM R+9
Cities with Similar Populations
- Seven Springs, NM R+2
- Elmer, OK R+73
- Enola, NC R+58
- Oak Hill, KS R+70
- Richland, IL R+48
- China, IN R+57
- New Columbia, IL R+68
- Sharon, IA R+54
- Garland, MT R+85
- Numa, IA R+58
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.