Middletown leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Middletown typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middletown, ~24% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middletown compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middletown leans more Republican than 22 of 58 neighbors.
Middletown runs about 26 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middletown. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+34), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Middletown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middletown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 89% of residents in Middletown drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Middletown sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 75% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Middletown, IA sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Middletown looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Middletown is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 93% of households in Middletown own their home, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Danville, IA R+33
- West Burlington, IA R+15
- Denmark, IA R+36
- Spring Grove, IA R+33
- Burlington, IA Even
- Pleasant Grove, IA R+50
- Latty, IA R+37
- Wever, IA R+35
- New London, IA R+35
- Sperry, IA R+43
Cities with Similar Populations
- Chestnut Ridge, PA R+43
- St. Martin, MN R+73
- Friendship, OK R+72
- Blandville, KY R+64
- Wagersville, KY R+63
- Rosebud, MT R+74
- Perkinsville, NY R+49
- Sawyers Mill, TN R+72
- Sagrada, MO R+62
- Holston Valley, TN R+74
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.