New Baltimore leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in New Baltimore typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Baltimore, ~41% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~0% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Baltimore compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Baltimore leans more Republican than 62 of 102 neighbors.
New Baltimore runs about 23 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while New Baltimore is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why New Baltimore leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Baltimore, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
New Baltimore votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 51%, well above the Virginia average of 26%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 86% of households in New Baltimore are family households, above 97% of cities. New Baltimore runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Baltimore, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in New Baltimore looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. New Baltimore is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 77%, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in New Baltimore own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in New Baltimore have completed high school, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Greenwich, VA R+30
- Airlie, VA R+20
- Broad Run, VA R+11
- Buckland, VA R+5
- Warrenton, VA R+7
- Casanova, VA R+22
- Gainesville, VA D+6
- Catlett, VA R+26
- Linton Hall, VA D+9
- Calverton, VA R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- River Grove, IL R+4
- Ruckersville, VA R+20
- Maynard, MA D+38
- East Greenbush, NY D+10
- Lancaster, KY R+56
- Belle View, VA D+44
- Orange Cove, CA D+6
- Huron, OH R+19
- Southwest Ranches, FL R+17
- Lake Hiawatha, NJ R+2
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.