New Carlisle leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 74% of adults in New Carlisle typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Carlisle, ~21% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Carlisle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Carlisle leans more Republican than 34 of 95 neighbors.
New Carlisle runs about 31 points more Republican than Ohio as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Carlisle. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+37), a spread of about 15 points.
Why New Carlisle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Carlisle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
New Carlisle votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 47%, modestly above the Ohio average of 34%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; New Carlisle, OH sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in New Carlisle looks the way it does
Turnout in New Carlisle sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Medway, OH R+43
- Donnelsville, OH R+48
- Haven View, OH R+61
- Cowlesville, OH R+47
- Snyderville, OH R+48
- Enon, OH R+35
- Holiday Valley, OH R+34
- North Hampton, OH R+52
- Huber Heights, OH R+9
- Tipp City, OH R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Fernway, PA R+9
- Sunbury, PA R+34
- West University Place, TX D+7
- Williamsburg, KY R+69
- Thomson, GA D+3
- Greendale, WI D+4
- Girard, OH R+8
- Dayton, NV R+42
- Belchertown, MA D+24
- Espanola, NM D+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.