New Castle leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 60% of adults in New Castle typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Castle, ~16% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Castle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Castle leans more Republican than 33 of 93 neighbors.
New Castle runs about 16 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Castle. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+55) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+44), a spread of about 11 points.
Why New Castle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Castle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 89% of residents in New Castle drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; New Castle, KY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in New Castle looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 31% of households in New Castle rent, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Port Royal, KY R+51
- Delville, KY R+55
- Eminence, KY R+40
- Sulphur, KY R+54
- Franklinton, KY R+60
- North Pleasureville, KY R+50
- Smithfield, KY R+51
- Pleasureville, KY R+56
- Campbellsburg, KY R+53
- Bethlehem, KY R+61
Cities with Similar Populations
- White Water, CA R+9
- Hineston, LA R+86
- McLaughlin, SD D+50
- Grand Coulee, WA R+31
- Jamestown, SC R+14
- Maysville, WV R+83
- Rockford, IA R+41
- Fisk, MO R+70
- Denaro, VA R+45
- Beach, ND R+69
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.