New Castle leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 66% of adults in New Castle typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Castle, ~20% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Castle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Castle leans more Republican than 33 of 47 neighbors.
New Castle runs about 11 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Castle. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+54) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 39 points.
Why New Castle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Castle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 76% of households in New Castle are family households, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; New Castle, TN sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in New Castle looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in New Castle own their home, about 13 points above the Tennessee average of 77%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and New Castle sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Laconia, TN R+43
- Hickory Valley, TN R+8
- Whiteville, TN D+6
- Williston, TN R+39
- Somerville, TN R+16
- Hebron, TN D+9
- Grand Junction, TN D+24
- Fayette Corners, TN D+7
- La Grange, TN R+2
- Yum Yum, TN R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hartford, OH R+53
- Ransons, VA R+21
- Old Boston, TX R+78
- Prescott, KS R+68
- Eminence, IN R+62
- White City, KY R+61
- Warlock, TX R+61
- Pinewood, MN R+42
- Naylor, AR R+69
- Long Barn, CA Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.