New Church is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 57% of adults in New Church typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Church, ~28% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Church compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Church sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 9 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 58 leaning the other way.
New Church runs about 7 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Church. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 19 points.
Why New Church leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in New Church. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with low high-school-completion share tend to turn out at a lower rate; New Church, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in New Church looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 48% of households in New Church rent, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 80% of adults in New Church have completed high school, below 91% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Wattsville, VA R+13
- Oak Hall, VA R+11
- Wallops Island, VA R+16
- Atlantic, VA R+22
- Horntown, VA R+28
- Temperanceville, VA R+26
- Withams, VA R+33
- Greenbackville, VA R+38
- Hallwood, VA R+10
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lacona, NY R+36
- Union Springs, NY R+13
- East Setauket, NY R+2
- Wagon Wheel, AZ R+32
- Springridge, LA R+62
- Laotto, IN R+55
- Scottsmoor, FL R+56
- Cabin John, MD D+62
- Berry, KY R+64
- Kings Mills, OH R+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.