New Haven leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 83% of adults in New Haven typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Haven, ~47% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Haven compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Haven leans more Democratic than 42 of 77 neighbors.
New Haven runs about 20 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole.
Why New Haven leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Haven, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 36% of adults in New Haven hold a bachelor's degree, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 33% of adults in New Haven have never been married, above 82% of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Haven, VT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in New Haven looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. New Haven is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Weybridge, VT D+23
- Bristol, VT D+20
- Vergennes, VT D+20
- East Monkton, VT D+12
- Ferrisburg, VT D+24
- Weybridge Hill, VT D+14
- Middlebury, VT D+47
- Monkton Boro, VT D+12
- South Lincoln, VT D+25
- Lincoln, VT D+25
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lakeland, MI R+12
- Hanover, MI R+42
- Faison, NC R+16
- Enterprise, UT R+75
- Brooklyn, IA R+44
- Kure Beach, NC R+12
- Star Prairie, WI R+37
- Loon Lake, WA R+40
- Sparta, KY R+62
- Threemile Corner, ID R+64
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.